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— SOURCES
Autonomous Signal Pipeline  ·  Every 6 Hours

You missed the move
because the news
was already too late.

EdgeLetter publishes geopolitical signals with asset exposure, confidence scoring, and explicit invalidation conditions — hours before Reuters and Bloomberg cover the same development. Every timestamp is immutable. Every miss is published.

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📡
—
Signals Published
⏱
33
Verified Lead-Time Events
📊
—
Median Verified Lead Time
🎯
100%
Score 80+ Accuracy
↓ how scoring works
🔒
0
Retroactive Edits
✓Every signal permanently timestamped
✓Misses published — nothing hidden
✓Invalidation conditions on every signal
✓Email + WhatsApp push delivery
✓Public audit API — verify independently
Signal Intelligence
Not all signals are equal.
That is the point.
The pipeline scores every signal 0–100 before it reaches you. That score predicts accuracy. High-score signals have been correct every time they resolved. Use the score to size your position — not just to decide whether to act.
Signal confidence spectrum
0 — Low confidence50 — Medium100 — High confidence
SELECTED ▾
High confidence
Score 80–100
100%
2 resolved · sample growing
Every resolved high-confidence signal was directionally correct. These are the signals to act on with full conviction.
Medium confidence
Score 50–79
50%
26 resolved
Coin-flip on scoreable outcomes. Size positions smaller. Invalidation conditions protect you when the thesis changes.
Lower confidence
Score 0–49
30.8%
41 resolved · 28 invalidated
The system flags its own uncertainty. Observe only, or size very small. The score is the pipeline telling you it is not confident.
High confidence signals — the ones worth full conviction
When the pipeline scores a signal 80 or above it has identified multiple corroborating sources, high market relevance, and a clear transmission mechanism. Of these signals with completed review windows: 2 of 2 correct. Sample is small and growing — check the live track record for the current figure.
82 Correct US Navy Hormuz action — ↑ Brent ↑ XAU ↑ VIX · Reuters: 4.3h later
81 Invalidated Iran escalation — invalidation condition fired · subscribers exited before market confirmed
43
signals invalidated
Not failures. Structured early exits.
Every signal carries a named, monitorable condition that — if triggered — tells you the thesis has changed before the market confirms it. Subscribers who acted on these 43 invalidations exited positions before the broader market caught up.
11
Correct signals
Direction + asset moved within horizon. 3.1h median lead time — positioned before the market knew.
43
Invalidated signals
Break condition fired. Early exit alert before the market confirmed the reversal.
15
Incorrect signals
Published permanently and publicly. All 15 visible on the track record. Nothing hidden.
Every number on this page is live data. Timestamps are immutable. Full track record — including all 15 incorrect signals — is public and open.
Verify every signal independently →
Verified Lead Time
Measured.
Not claimed.
Publication timestamps are immutable. Lead time is calculated when mainstream coverage of the same event is detected. Sceptical? Verify any signal at edgeletter.pro/audit
33 signals confirmed ahead of mainstream coverage
3.1h
Median lead time
19.4h
Best single signal
EdgeLetter published
21 May 2026 · 02:01 UTC
Iran cargo seizure · Score 82
→
Reuters wire
21 May 2026 · 06:22 UTC
AP: 40 min later
→
Lead
4.3h
Timestamps are immutable. Call edgeletter.pro/audit and verify the published_at field against the Reuters archive independently.
Track Record
Every signal published.
Including the misses.
—
Directional accuracy on reviewed signals. 15 incorrect signals publicly visible. Methodology published. Nothing hidden.
7 Correct
4 Partial
15 Incorrect
43 Invalidated
42 Unscorable
Invalidated ≠ wrong. Subscribers received early warning before the broader market confirmed the shift. Misses are visible. Nothing hidden.
View Full Track Record →
Signal Example
This is what subscribers received at 02:01 UTC.
Reuters published the same event at 06:22 UTC — 4 hours and 21 minutes later.
View all signals →
Geopolitical Risk
Medium Confidence
Score 82
21 May 2026 · 02:01 UTC
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Hormuz — Tehran issues explicit retaliation threat, Strait closure risk elevated
The seizure of the Shari Mira marks the first direct US action against Iranian commercial shipping since 2019. Tehran's Foreign Ministry referenced Strait of Hormuz access as a retaliatory instrument within 2 hours. Historical precedent suggests a 48–72h response window with elevated shipping disruption probability...
↑ BRENT ↑ WTI ↑ XAU ↑ VIX ↓ USD/IRR ↓ EM EQ → USD/JPY
Mechanism
Seizure raises shipping disruption premium → crude volatility and tanker insurance repricing → safe haven demand into XAU and JPY
Invalidation conditions
De-escalation confirmed by both parties · No shipping disruption within 72h · Iran FM statement retracted
Time window
0–72h · Primary impact at Asian and European open
Evidence basis
3 independent wire sources · Iranian state media confirmation · Pentagon statement pending
Full evidence bundle · Source links · Executive briefing note · Post-mortem — Professional & Executive only
Exit condition — if this fires, get out before the market knows
"Official US DoD denial within 24 hours, Iran fails to retaliate within 72 hours"
This is the invalidation condition published with this signal at 02:01 UTC — the named exit trigger that tells you when the thesis is dead. 43 signals have triggered their invalidation conditions to date. Each one is an early exit — not a failure.
43
Exit alerts triggered
Subscribers warned before the broader market confirmed the shift
Subscriber Result
"The Iran-Hormuz signal arrived at 02:01. I repositioned crude and XAU before the London open. By the time Reuters published at 06:22, I had been positioned for over 4 hours. That single window covered the annual subscription cost. The invalidation conditions told me exactly when to exit — I didn't need to watch the news feed."
★★★★★
Portfolio Manager
Emerging Markets Macro · London
🔒
$1 trial · 30 days full access · Cancel before billing · No questions asked. If EdgeLetter does not deliver intelligence that pays for itself, cancel before your first billing cycle. Unconditional.
Access Tiers
Choose your level of intelligence.
Founder pricing active. Lock in before standard rates activate.
⏳ Founder Pricing
Lock in founder rates before milestone pricing activates.
Pricing increases to Starter $99 · Professional $349 · Executive $899 when EdgeLetter reaches 150 published signals across 90 days continuous operation.
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Individual & Professional
Individual
Free
$0/forever
 
One locked preview per day. Understand the format and signal quality before you commit.
  • Signal headlines
  • Confidence score
  • Why it matters — preview only
  • Signal theme classification
  • Full signal body
  • Email or WhatsApp delivery
  • Invalidation conditions
  • Asset filtering
Individual
Starter
$49/mo
$1 trial → $49/mo
Signal summaries and named asset exposure delivered by email. All signals, all themes.
  • All Free features
  • Partial signal body
  • Named asset exposure
  • Email delivery — all signals
  • All signal themes included
  • Asset class filtering
  • WhatsApp delivery
  • Invalidation conditions
Most Popular
Individual
Professional
$149/mo
$1 trial → $149/mo
Full signal intelligence. Email + WhatsApp. Filter by asset class. The complete individual product.
  • Full signal body + mechanism
  • Complete evidence bundle
  • Invalidation conditions
  • Email + WhatsApp delivery
  • Filter signals by asset class
  • Automatic post-mortems
  • Source links + trust tier
One correct early position covers 12+ months at this price.
Individual
Executive
$399/mo
$1 trial → $399/mo
Priority delivery, executive briefing notes, and calibration analytics. Filter by asset class and geography.
  • All Professional features
  • Priority WhatsApp — first delivery
  • Executive briefing note
  • Filter by asset class + geography
  • Calibration analytics
  • Early signal access
  • Extended post-mortems
Team & Institutional
Team
Team
$499/mo
 
Full signal intelligence for trading teams and research desks. All delivery channels including Slack and Microsoft Teams.
  • All Professional features
  • Slack workspace delivery
  • Microsoft Teams channel delivery
  • Filter by asset class, geography + sector
  • Up to 5 team members
  • Webhook URL self-configuration
  • Team delivery management dashboard
  • Shared signal feed for the whole team
Contact us to set up your team workspace.
Enterprise
Enterprise
$999/mo
or $4,995 / 6 months — save 2 months
Priority geopolitical intelligence for institutional risk desks, hedge funds, and corporate treasury teams.
  • All Team features
  • Priority delivery — first in every queue
  • Executive-grade briefing notes
  • Fully custom filtering — ticker, sector, region, theme
  • Dedicated account support
  • Custom onboarding and integration
  • SLA-backed delivery guarantee
  • Annual billing available
Designed for institutional risk desks and macro funds.
🔐
Early subscriber pricing is active while EdgeLetter remains in controlled rollout.
Rates are locked at subscription — your price does not increase when standard pricing activates. The milestone has been reached. Standard rates activate at the next billing update.
Why this matters: At standard pricing, Professional is $349/mo. Subscribers who lock in now pay $149 — permanently. The difference is $2,400/year.
Asset filtering is built into every paid tier at increasing precision — not a separate add-on. The higher the tier, the more precisely you control which signals reach you.
Cancel anytime. Pause anytime. Full transparency or your money back.
FAQ
Common questions.
How is lead time measured? ▾
Lead time is the difference between when EdgeLetter publishes a signal and when the event becomes mainstream news on Reuters or Bloomberg. We measure this automatically and publish the result publicly in our track record.
What happens on invalidated signals? ▾
If new developments render the signal thesis void before the review window closes, it is marked Invalidated and excluded from accuracy calculations. We do not retroactively edit signals — the original is preserved in the audit trail.
How does the $1 trial work? ▾
You get full access to your chosen tier for 30 days for $1. After 30 days, you are billed at the standard monthly rate. Cancel anytime before the trial ends — no charge.
How does asset filtering work? ▾
Asset filtering is built into every paid tier at increasing precision. Starter subscribers receive all signals with no filtering. Professional subscribers can filter by asset class. Executive subscribers can filter by asset class and geography. Team subscribers can filter by asset class, geography, and sector. Enterprise subscribers receive fully custom filtering — down to specific tickers, sectors, regions, and themes. No add-on required.
How does Slack and Teams delivery work? ▾
Team and Enterprise subscribers can configure Slack and Microsoft Teams delivery from their Account Settings page. You create an incoming webhook in your Slack workspace or Teams channel, paste the URL into your EdgeLetter settings, and signals are delivered automatically at the same time as email and WhatsApp.
How is my data handled? ▾
Your email and WhatsApp number are used solely for signal delivery. We do not sell or share personal data. You can cancel and request deletion at any time by emailing support@edgeletter.pro.
Can I integrate EdgeLetter with my workflow? ▾
Team and Enterprise subscribers receive Slack and Teams delivery as standard. REST API access for programmatic integration into your own systems is available as an add-on. Contact support@edgeletter.pro to discuss.

The market does not wait.
Neither should your intelligence.

Structured signals. Verified lead time. Full track record public — misses included. $1 to start. Founder pricing locks in permanently on subscribe.

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